Bayesian Model Selection with Future 21cm Observations of The Epoch of Reionisation

We apply Bayesian statistics to perform model selection on different reionisation scenarios via the Multinest algorithm. Initially, we recover the results shown by 21CMMC for the parameter estimation of 21cmFAST models. We proceed to test several toy models of the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR) defined in contrasting morphology and scale. We find that LOFAR observations are unlikely to allow model selection even with long integration times. HERA would require 61 dipoles to perform the same analysis in 1080 hours, and becomes comparable to the SKA with 217 dipoles. We find the SKA requires only 324 hours of observation to conclusively distinguish between our models. Once model selection is achievable, an analysis of observational priors is performed finding that neutral fraction checks at specific redshifts add little to no inference. We show the difficulties in model selection at the level of distinguishing fiducial parameters within a model or distinguishing galaxies with a constant versus power law mass-to-light ratio. Finally, we explore the use of the Savage-Dickey density ratio to show the redundancy of the parameter Rmfp within 21cmFAST.Comment: 20 pages, 16 figures - Accepted for publication by MNRA

Exploring the etiological pathways of Problematic Pornography Use in NoFap/PornFree rebooting communities: A critical narrative analysis of Internet forum data

Objective: Problematic pornography use (PPU) has been extensively studied in terms of its negative implications for various life domains. The empirical literature reveals measured outcomes of interpersonal and intrapersonal dysfunction in participants’ everyday living, supporting its classification as a disorder. The increasing number of complaints around PPU opens the door to the creation of online self-help rebooting communities. Method: This qualitative study aims to provide a better understanding of this behavior by investigating potential etiological pathways contributing to the onset of PPU, as they were expressed by members of the online NoFap/PornFree self-help communities with self-perceived PPU. Results: The critical narrative analysis reveals a complex web of mutually informing causal connections. The dialectical relationship between situational resources, material conditions and an embodied spectator gives rise to an online persona with motivations of self-exploration, experimentation and socializing. A sense of vulnerability, also, renders the use of pornography as a means of escape and validation. Furthermore, commitment to abstinence, framed by the notions of recovery and relapse, is found to be a major factor for maintaining distress. Conclusions: The study highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the etiological pathways of PPU for a more effective and targeted intervention. Moving beyond biomedical conceptualizations suggests an intervention whereby PPU is placed in a context of a crisis of meaning

Lived experience of mental distress and sense-making in black ethnic groups according to cultural heritage

Objective: Previous research has highlighted men and women from black ethnic groups are more likely to be diagnosed with poor mental health and may have difficulty recognising experiences as such, due to perceptions of stigma and culturally defined attributions of distress. The aim of this research was to explore how black ethnic groups experience mental distress and find meaning in their experiences according to cultural heritage. Method: Semi-structured interviews with four participants and an Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis were conducted. Results: Findings describe an awareness of cultural stigma relating to mental health, emotional distance impacting disclosure within the family, mental health as a misunderstood concept and feelings of empowerment through acceptance and supported disclosure. Whilst cultural heritage was important for developing awareness and understanding of stigma, attributed meanings of mental distress were individualistic. Discussion: Awareness of how stigmatic cultural conceptualisations are generationally represented and systemically maintained is vital to understanding how people from black ethnic groups experience mental distress. Clinical implications are discussed to explore how the socio-cultural and mental health needs of this population can be met

Iatrogenic effects of Reboot/ NoFap on public health: A preregistered survey study

“Reboot,” especially NoFap, promotes abstinence from masturbation and/or pornography to treat “pornography addiction,” an unrecognized diagnosis. While the intention of Reboot/NoFap is to decrease distress, qualitative studies have consistently suggested that “Reboots” paradoxically cause more distress. The distress appears to occur in response to (1) the abstinence goal, which recasts common sexual behaviors as personal “failures,” and (2) problematic and inaccurate Reboot/NoFap forum messaging regarding sexuality and addiction. This preregistered survey asked men about their experience with perceived “relapse” and NoFap forums. Participants reported that their most recent relapse was followed by feeling shameful, worthless, sad, a desire to commit suicide, and other negative emotions. A novel predictor of identifying as a pornography addict in this lower religiosity sample was higher narcissism. Participants reported that NoFap forums contained posts that were misogynist (73.7% of participants), bullying (49.1%), anti-LGBT (42.9%), antisemitic (32.0%), instructing followers to harm or kill themselves (23.5%), or threats to hurt someone else (21.1%). More engagement in NoFap online forums was associated with worse symptoms of erectile dysfunction, depression, anxiety, and more sex negativity. Results support and expand previously documented harms and problems with Reboot/NoFap claims of treating pornography addiction from qualitative research

Do you want therapy with that? A critical account of working within IAPT

© Emerald Group Publishing Limited.Purpose: The IAPT programme has been rolled out across England in the last ten years. Although undoubtedly many people have benefited from having greater access to psychological therapy there are several issues with the practicalities of Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) and also with its ideology. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach: This is a personal reflection of working within the IAPT system for several years. Significant statements heard or interpretations of what has been said are presented alongside an analysis of the implications. Findings: A number of important concerns are presented. The overarching concept of the "McDonaldization" process is discussed as a way of encapsulating the IAPT experience; with its theoretical reliance on the medical model and the real world impact of tendering for services in the modern NHS. The impact of IAPT on cognitive behavioural psychotherapy is also highlighted. Originality/value: A lot has been written in the press and online about IAPT Many of the criticisms seem to derive from people outside of the IAPT system, many of whom have their own personal or professional agenda for attacking IAPT and Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT); often the criticisms are uninformed. This paper is a reflection of working within the IAPT system and not just an uninformed critique of CBT. Several concerns are raised that without remedy may seriously hold back the progress that psychological therapy has made in recent years

Cognitive behavioural treatment for problematic hoarding: A case study

A fifty one year old man's difficulties associated with hoarding are presented using a case study methodology. A psychological formulation and treatment plan is constructed following the work of a case study by Frost and Steketee, (1998). Despite some improvements in his functioning and clinical scores the overall reduction in clutter did not meet expectations. The focus of the discussion is the lack of published literature on hoarding behaviour, and the implications this has on interventions. Also highlighted are the issues associated with psychiatric diagnosis and the way in which this can influence decision makin

Neogene fluvial landscape evolution in the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert

Dating of extensive alluvial fan surfaces and fluvial features in the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert, Chile, using cosmogenic nuclides provides unrivalled insights about the onset and variability of aridity. The predominantly hyperarid conditions help to preserve the traces of episodic climatic and/or slow tectonic change. Utilizing single clast exposure dating with cosmogenic 10Be and 21Ne, we determine the termination of episodes of enhanced fluvial erosion and deposition occurring at ~19, ~14, ~9.5 Ma; large scale fluvial modification of the landscape had ceased by ~2–3 Ma. The presence of clasts that record pre-Miocene exposure ages (~28 Ma and ~34 Ma) require stagnant landscape development during the Oligocene. Our data implies an early onset of (hyper-) aridity in the core region of the Atacama Desert, interrupted by wetter but probably still arid periods. The apparent conflict with interpretation that favour a later onset of (hyper-) aridity can be reconciled when the climatic gradients within the Atacama Desert are considered

The implementation of a flipped classroom approach at a UK dental school

Acknowledgements: No fnancial support was received to produce this paperPeer reviewedPostprin

The Effect of Silage Harvester Type on Harvesting Efficiency

Choice of harvesting system can significantly influence production costs. Whether a tractor-powered or self-propelled forage harvester or a self-loading forage wagon system is used will depend on particular circumstances. However, in order to make an informed choice relevant information has to be available. A trial was commissioned by Landmec Pottinger (Ivybridge, UK) and Traynors (Clonmel, Ireland) at this Institute to investigate the performance of a self-propelled forage harvester system and a self-loading forage wagon system

Non-attendance at psychological therapy appointments

Purpose: Research demonstrates that non-attendance at healthcare appointments is a waste of scarce resources; leading to reduced productivity, increased costs, disadvantaged patients through increased waiting times, and demoralised staff. This study investigated non-attendance and implemented interventions to improve practice. Methodology: A mixed methods service audit took place in a primary care psychological therapies service. Existing service guidelines and reporting systems were reviewed. A cross-sectional design was used to compare a year’s cohort of completers of cognitive behavioural therapy (N=140) and drop-outs (N=61). Findings: Findings suggested contrasting guidelines and clinically inaccurate reporting systems. The overall service DNA (Did Not Attend) rate was 8.9%; well below rates suggested in the literature. The drop-out rate from cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) was 17%. The most influential factor associated with CBT drop-out was the level of depression. The level of anxiety, risk ratings and deprivation scores were also different between completers and drop-outs. The main reasons given for non-attendance were forgetting, being too unwell to attend, having other priorities, or dissatisfaction with the service; again these findings were consistent with prior research. Conclusions: A range of recommendations for practice are made, many of which were implemented with an associated reduction in the DNA rate